Poker Average vs Variance

September 2nd, 2009

What is average? What is variance? What is the difference between them? If you want to be a successful poker player, you must be able to understand these important questions. It’s essential that you understand that these two ideas are not interchangeable, and variance may affect what games you choose to play and how you choose to play them.

In technical statistical terms, average is a measure of central tendency while variance is a measure of probability. In English, this means that average tells you what tends to happen while variance tells you how likely something is to happen. When determining whether to get involved in a pot in poker, these are both very important concepts.

Average and Variance for Poker Players

When poker players consider their results in terms of average and variance, it may go something like this. A player may decide that their win rate is $5 an hour. This is how much they win on average. However, let’s say Player A and Player B both have an average $5 an hour win rate.

Over his last 10 one hour sessions, Player A’s results have been as follows: Session 1: +$10 Session 2: -$15 Session 3: +$25 Session 4: +5 Session 5: -5 Session 6: -5 Session 7 +10 Session 8 +10 Session 9: +$15 Session 10: +0.

For Player B: 1: +200 2: -$50 3:-$100 4: +$50 5: -$100 6:-$100 7:+$100 8: 0 9: -$150 10: +100.

Breakdown of Average and Variance

Both players have a win rate that averages out to $5, but for Player B, the variance is much higher. He is winning and losing hundreds each session, meaning that even though on average, you can expect either player to be up around $25 after a five-hour session, Player A will usually be up or down around $15, while at any given time Player B could be down hundreds.

Average, Variance and Your Poker Bankroll

What should be clear here is that even if you are a winning player, if you are a high variance player you will need much more money to be successful than if you are a lower variance player. If you don’t have the bankroll to sustain it, a high variance style will be hard to succeed with.

You should also compare the different games. Short-handed no-limit hold’em usually has very high variance, especially if you are the type of player who likes to push your chips around and put pressure on your opponents each and every pot. Sit and Gos, on the other hand, is for most players a game format with low variance. New players should also look for the best bonus, which decreases variance in the beginning of a poker career.

The bottom line is: when you examine your game, don’t just look at the average win rate. In doing so you might go bust although you have a winning strategy in the long haul.

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